Political insiders love a good "what if" game

This is a purely hypothetical question – nothing more – but in politics, sometimes the “what ifs” are the most fun.

So here’s the scenario: it is one year from today and Senator Patrick Leahy’s cell phone rings. It’s the President-elect of the United States, who says: “Pat, I want you to be my Attorney General.”

Leahy’s response comes without hesitation: “It would be my honor, Madame President.” – remember, it’s a hypothetical.

Assuming Leahy’s confirmation goes smoothly, he resigns from the Senate on January 20, 2009 to become the nation’s top law enforcement officer – not a bad way for a 68-year-old ex-Prosecutor who has spent half his life in the Senate – to close his political career.

Now the next move belongs to the Governor – again, hypothetically, let’s say it’s Jim Douglas, a Republican. Douglas gets to appoint a United States Senator. Who would it be? Perhaps Lt. Governor Brian Dubie, Secretary of Administration Mike Smith, and businessman/'06 Senate candidate Rich Tarrant possible candidates?

The last time Vermont had a Senate vacancy was in 1971, when Republican Winston Prouty died on September 10 after a short illness. Eight days later, Republican Governor Deane Davis announced that he would appoint Republican Congressman (and former Governor) Robert Stafford to the Senate. Davis also announced that he had set a special primary election for November 16 and a special election to fill the remaining five years of Prouty’s term on January 7, 1972.

So if Douglas followed Davis’ precedent, he would appoint a new Senator by the end of January, hold a special primary election sometime in March, and a special election for the remaining nineteen months of Leahy’s term in May.

Douglas could appoint himself; that’s not uncommon in American politics – although there is a history of Governor’s who send themselves to the Senate losing re-election (like Wendell Anderson in Minnesota in 1978). But he would have to be sure that Republicans hold the Lieutenant Governor’s office in November ’08, or his departure would mean a Democratic Lieutenant Governor would become Governor.

Both parties seem to agree that Douglas remains the strongest Republican contender in Vermont, and as an incumbent, he would be incredibly formidable in a state that has never ousted a sitting U.S. Senator.

But if in this hypothetical scenario, it was Dubie, Smith, Tarrant – or State Senator Kevin Mullin – then Democrats (backed by a newly-elected Democratic President) would clearly play to get this Senate seat back. It would be hard to keep Congressman Peter Welch out of that race, since he wouldn’t have to give up his House seat. Similarly, no Democratic statewide officeholders or legislators would have to give up their current offices to run in a special election for Senate. Look for Auditor Thomas Salmon to run; his father, a former Governor, won 48% against Stafford in the 1976 race.

Of course, this is all just a hypothetical.