July 29, 2008

For Immediate Release

Contact:  Dennise Casey

802-223-3412

"A Swing and A Miss":

Symington's Strikeout

Monteplier, VT - In statements yesterday, Speaker Gaye Symington made the incorrect claim that Vermont ranked last in New England for job growth.  The Douglas campaign was quick to point out her error.

Today, the Symington campaign tried to rationalize their error by saying "The question is, do you include a state that lost jobs in a comparison about job growth?"  Sorry, Ms. Symington, there's no chance the umpire is going to let that one by.

Under Symington's thinking, we should reorder all manner of rankings.  Take baseball, for example, and let's look at which team is ranked last in the National League Central.  Right now in the N.L. Central, the Pittsburgh Pirates are the last placed team, winning 49 games and losing 57 for a winning percentage of just 0.462.  They are losing more games than winning - worse than any other team in the division - and are in last place.  Pretty straightforward, right?

National League Central standings - 7/29/08

 CentralW L PCT GB Home Away DIV Streak  Chicago Cubs 6244  0.585 --- 39-14 23-3024-19  Won 2 Milwaukee 60 46 0.566 2 32-20 28-26 28-19 Lost 2 St. Louis 59 49 0.546 4 30-25 20-24 25-24 Won 1 Cincinnati 50 56 0.467 12 1/2 30-25 20-32 14-22 Lost 4 Houston 49 57 0.467 12 1/2 25-25 24-31 20-25 Won 2 Pittsburgh 49 56 0.462 13 31-25 18-32 23-25 Won 1

Not so fast.  If you used Symington's scheme, the division results would be vastly different.  In fact, the St. Louis Cardinals would be the last placed team. How so?  Take a look:

N.L. Central Standings - Symington Scheme - 7/29/08

 CentralW L PCT GB Home Away DIV Streak  Chicago Cubs 6244  0.585 --- 39-14 23-3024-19  Won 2 Milwaukee 60 46 0.566 2 32-20 28-26 28-19 Lost 2 St. Louis 59 49 0.546 4 30-25 20-24 25-24 Won 1 Cincinnati 50 56 0.467 12 1/2 30-25 20-32 14-22 Lost 4 Houston 49 57 0.467 12 1/2 25-25 24-31 20-25 Won 2 Pittsburgh 49 56 0.462 13 31-25 18-32 23-25 Won 1

Under Gaye Symington's fuzzy math, teams with more losses than wins would not rank in the standings of which team has the best winning record.  In Symington's analysis, the Cardinals have the worst winning record - last in the division.  Put another way, the Cincinnati Reds would have the best losing record in the division, which sure would thrill Reds fans!  Try explaining Symington's hairsplitting logic to a Little League player - no chance!

That's a swing and a miss...

As any avid baseball fan would know, it's always best to have the most recent statistics.  The most recent jobs data reveals that Vermont's relative job growth standing has improved in  New England (according to how 99.9% of people interpret these charts, i.e., not the Symington scheme).

Data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, June 2008:

Total Private Jobs June-07 June-08 % Change  N.E. Rank New Hampshire 565.7 572.9 1.3% 1Massachusetts 2,890.8 2,896.8 0.2% 2 Vermont 256.8 256.7 0.0% 3(T) Connecticut 1,471.4 1,471.0 0.0% 3(T) Maine 527.4 526.2 -0.2% 4 Rhode Island 436.5 423.7 -2.9% 5

Total Nonform Jobs June-07 June-08 % Change  N.E. Rank New Hampshire 656.1 665.3 1.4% 1Massachusetts 3,326.70 2,896.8 0.3% 2 Vermont 1,719.90 1,723.60 0.2% 3 Connecticut 310.8 310.8 0.0% 4 Maine632.5 630.9 -0.3% 5 Rhode Island 501.4 488.4 -2.6% 6

* Total Private Jobs equals Total Nonfarm Jobs less Government Jobs.** Data link: http://www.bls.gov/news.release/laus.t06.htm ###