Analysis: The gubernatorial race

Gubernatorial candidates are vying to occupy The Pavilion's fifth floor: Politicker PhotoWith the kick-off tours for the top gubernatorial candidates finished, and the race to be the state's top executive officer currently underway, Gov. Jim Douglas (R-Middlebury), House Speaker Gaye Symington (D-Jericho) and Progressive Party candidate Anthony Pollina have hunkered down for a long run until Election Day on Nov. 4.

Earlier in the week, leaders from all three candidates' campaigns spoke with PolitickerVT.com about their plans along the campaign trail. Today, political experts give their take on the race and how it's shaping up for the fall.

"In Vermont, personality always plays a huge role," said Garrison Nelson, a political science professor at the University of Vermont.

Kevin Ellis, a partner of the government and public affairs firm Kimbell Sherman Ellis, noted in a past interview that one of Symington's greatest challenges is surmounting Douglas' wide name recognition, built through visiting schools or hosting barbecues across the state.

Yet leaders of the Vermont Democratic and Republican state parties, hope that substance will dominate the campaign. "I think the most important thing is the record," stated Tayt Brooks, the executive director of the state's GOP, referring to the current governor's work while in office. Vermont Democratic Party Communication Director Liz Saxe echoed Brooks' sentiments, who said "the focus of the campaign is that the state has really stagnated under the leadership of Gov. Douglas."

And while the themes of stagnation and change seem to form the core all three gubernatorial campaign camps -- from Douglas claiming to be the "voice of change and the voice of reason" and Symington promising to get Vermont out of being "stuck in neutral" -- some are questioning the incumbent governor's ability to deliver on his message.

Although Nelson said he believes that Douglas has become part of the "fabric of Vermont," he said that "incumbents are never the voice of change. And that's the reality."

Ellis noted that "Vermont is at a fork in the road," and if Symington wanted to win, "her task must be to convince Vermonters that Douglas must be fired." And that's something much easier said than done.

Saxe said that to Green Mountain State residents, it should be evident that the governor's six years in office should be proof positive that it's time for a new leader.

Brooks countered that Douglas' six years in office is experience necessary to implement new policies. He also said that Republicans were focusing on bringing in new members to Vermont's General Assembly to help the governor promote new initiatives.

On the campaign trail, the weakening economy will be a key issue, particularly in the wake of IBM's huge employment cuts, and the Douglas campaign will continue to target Symington's proposals to increase taxes and Pollina's support of such proposals. While everyone agrees the economy is a key issue, some think that the governor's strategy may not be that effective.

"Taxes are not the kiss of death in Vermont," stated Nelson, who also said that Vermonters are willing to pay taxes if the funds are put to good use.

External factors beyond each candidate's control could also swing the election. The Symington and Douglas campaigns are not concerned with the prospect that Pollina's Progressive Party bid may lure voters away from the Democratic and Republican candidates. But some experts believe this might determine the election, especially because the anti-Douglas vote will be split.

Furthermore, the presidential election could factor into the gubernatorial race. Political observers have noted that the widespread popularity of U.S. Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) could drive Democrats to the polls in huge numbers. And the state's current disenchantment with the top of the Republican Party -- President Bush and Vice President Cheney have outstanding arrest warrants in Brattleboro and Marlboro for "crimes against the constitution" -- means that Douglas might have to avoid support from prominent members of the GOP.

Regardless of the external variables, the gubernatorial election is just now reaching full speed, and the long race to November is expected to be close.